In the wild world of fantasy football, there are many different opinions and predictions for making future decisions about players. The goal is to understand previous results, current team structure, and skill sets of each player to create a mental ranking of your current inventory. Additionally, the growth of the sports betting market adds another untapped market for comparing the potential outcomes of each player.
- Player Props vs. ADP: QB | RB | WR
Below is a list of the top 12 wide receiver betting data converted to fantasy points.We got almost all data points for 49 wideouts (highlighted in green). For those who miss over/underlines, we’ve crossed out numbers based on previous stats and other given lines of catches or receiver yards.
Wide Receiver 1-12
Note: PPR scoring
Looking at adjusted fantasy points from the sportsbook (actual data for top 12 wideouts), the 12th ranked wide receiver had a projected 246.5 fantasy points in the PPR League. Their place in the rankings for the past three seasons ended with the following total points:
- 2019 – 237.40 Fantasy Points
- 2020 – 248.50 Fantasy Points
- 2021 – 246.80 Fantasy Points
Based on this information, these are the top tier wideout backend betting opportunities.
Davante AdamsLas Vegas Raiders
Adams is just ahead of Stephon Diggs in the National Fantasy Football Championship, but Diggs continues to be drafted over Adams in the Underdog Fantasy Best Ball League. In the sportsbook, he is rated above his Ja’Marr Chase. In his last two seasons at Green Bay, Adams ranked him first and second in his PPR-format fantasy scores (359.40 and 344.30). To reach the 2022 projection, he needs to achieve 80% or more stats in the last two seasons. In the betting market, all his lines can be over, but nothing is off the line.
Jamal ChaseCincinnati Bengals
Despite having a top 4 wide receiver ranking in the expected stats, the sportsbook has almost a 10.86% decline in chases as the offense develops. His over/under total catch (84.5) looks good. Justin Jefferson has improved all stats from 2020 (88/1,400/7) to his 2021 (108/1,616/10) while offering a similar pedigree. Chase is the best wide in the game this year, although he’s expected to be a receiver, but he’s projected to catch 99 balls for 1,628 yards and 14 points. His best play is catchover, but I expect him to win in every category.
Michael PittmanIndianapolis Colts
In the fantasy football market, Pittman is a very popular player based on his NFFC ranking (13) and my prediction (11). The sportsbook’s over/under stats converted to fantasy points (227.1) put him in 9th place at wideouts. Last year, his final total catches (88) and his receiving yardage (1,082) topped the 2022 betting line. Pittman should outperform ADP while offering play in overs in all areas thanks to his upgrades at quarterback in the offseason.
Wide receiver 13-24
Adjusted sportsbook data predicts the No. 24 wide receiver (DK Metcalfe) to score 195.60 fantasy points in PPR format. In 2021, that ranking finished with his 220.10 fantasy points (212.70 in 2019 and 212.40 in 2020). Metcalfe was the only player on this list with no predictions to receive yards.
Deebo SamuelSan Francisco 49ers
His ranking (18th), which receives stats from the sportsbook, compares to his ADP in the NFFC (7th) and my prediction (4th), as a significant portion of his value is in the run game. , looks like it’s out.
AJ BrownPhiladelphia Eagles
Brown was a top 10 wideout drafted in the high stakes market. But while he ranks 15th in the sportsbook with reasonable predictions (71/1,026/7), I have a much lower outlook (25th). He has a high ceiling, but this season the Eagles have run the ball a lot, leading to sub-par goals in many games.
Darnell MooneyChicago Bears
The Mooney fits the backend WR2 profile in PPR format, but ranks lower in the wide receiver in NFFC (25th) and my prediction (32nd). His early lines are like a sportsbook putting him above/below as “the masses.” The Sage’s Draft suggests that the best aspect of his prospects is under.
Wide receiver 25-36
My top three players in this grouping are Juju Smith-Schuster (17th), Michael Thomas (19th), and Elijah Moore (18th). We expect each option to significantly outperform the sports betting line in 2022.
Courtland SuttonDenver Broncos
Rarely have we seen Sutton skate half a round in the NFFC Draft. He consistently enters round 3 in his WR23 rankings and matches my outlook. Sportsbook appears to fall short of his expectations (63/926/6). Based on his price point, I can’t pull the trigger on Sutton in the draft, but I do have a chance in overs with catches and touchdowns. Russell Wilson is a significant quarterback upgrade.
Wide receiver 27-48
It’s interesting to see four rookie wide receivers (Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Skyy Moore) between 43rd and 46th in the betting market. Burks has the highest starting chances, leading to a strong showing by Sports Illustrated (33rd). His three other young players have exciting ceilings, but on each offense he needs to start the season as a WR3. Not only does Moore have the best pass to move up the depth chart in Kansas City, he also has an elite quarterback.
Julio JonesTampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite being listed 49th in the sportsbook (many other potential wideouts lack over/underlines), Jones is either in the NFFC (79th) or in my rankings (60th). I don’t think he’ll be a WR4. But he’s a player to think about in the coming weeks, as Tom Brady could unlock the scoring portion of his stats line. With no good options on the tight end, Jones could fill the void left by the loss of Rob Gronkowski.
Looking at the third market (sports betting) can give fantasy drafters valuable insight into the expected value of some players. At the same time, he could make some money in 2022 by knowing more than just a book about the NFL player pool.
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