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Aaron Judge chasing home run history: Yankees score stars on pace to beat Roger Maris' record. will he get there?

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Back in Spring Training, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge rejected something very reasonable Seven-year contract extension worth $213.5 millionIt was a bold decision and one that was never in doubt. Judges responded this season by doing the impossible. more money. Some players get overwhelmed by the pressure. Judges don’t. he is prosperous

Through Sunday’s game, Judge batted .301/.389/.669 and hit an MLB-leading 43 home runs. He also scored (91), RBI (97), total bases (267), OPS (1.058), OPS+ (196), and he has his FanGraphs (6.8) version of WAR and Baseball his Reference ( 6.3) Both versions lead baseball. The race for the home run title isn’t much of a race.

Here are the MLB home run leaderboards as of August 8:

  1. Yankees’ Aaron Judge: 43
  2. Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber: 34
  3. Astros’ Jordan Alvarez: 30
  4. Braves’ Austin Riley: 29
  5. Pete Alonso, Mets: 29

Despite hitting a home run last weekend, Judge has been on a rampage since the All-Star break, going deep 10 times in 16 games played in the second half. Literally the whole team. Since the All-Star break, Miami has somehow only hit eight home runs.

With 43 home runs in 109 games for the team, Judge has 64 home runs (63.9 to be exact) this season. He’s been over a week into August and Judge has maintained his home run pace, not only setting a new record for his 60th home run chance, but his 1st in the American league for his season. It also gives you the chance to This is his 61st home run for Roger Maris with the Yankees in 1961.

“I try not to, but people keep asking me that question.” When asked if he would consider chasing 60 home runs for Matt Snyder in the All-Star Game, Judge said:“…if that happens, I may have a better answer by the end of the year. When I get to that point, we can talk about it. Until then, it’s very It’s hard. It’s half-hearted, and it’s hard to talk about it.”

There are some nice symmetries in the judges’ pursuit of Maris’ AL home run record. Maris hit his 61st home run in 1961, 61 years before he hit. He was also wearing his number 9. The judges said he was wearing number 99. The question is, can the judges actually break Maris’ record? Or reach 60 home runs in general? Here’s what you need to know about Judges chasing Maris.

Single Season Home Run Leaderboard

Before going any further, note that only eight times in MLB history a player has hit 60 home runs in a single season, and six of those eight times were in the so-called steroid era. Talking about what the judges are probably doing doesn’t happen often. Here are the eight seasons in history that have hit 60 home runs.

  1. Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 73
  2. Mark McGuire, 1998 Cardinals: 70
  3. Sammy Sosa, 1998 Cubs: 66
  4. Mark McGuire, 1999 Cardinals: 65
  5. Sammy Sosa, 2001 Cubs: 64
  6. Sammy Sosa, 1999 Cubs: 63
  7. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
  8. Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 60

Giancarlo Stanton had MLB’s most recent 60 home runs and hit 59 in the 2017 NL MVP season. This includes a truly mind-boggling stretch in which Stanton hit his 30th home run in his 48th game. Ryan Howard hit his 58th home run in his 2006 NL MVP season. Even in this happy era of home runs, very few players actually run at 60 dingers like Judge this year.

what the judges have already done

We’re looking at how many homers Judges finish the season with, but it’s important to note that we’re discussing this considering what Judges have done so far. He is the 10th player in history to hit 43 home runs in the team’s first 109 games. He only hit 3 players (5 instances) more. Here are five:

Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants

50 (2.18G per hour)

73 (2.22G per hour)

Mark McGuire, 1998 Cardinals

46 (2.37 G per hour)

70 (2.31 G per hour)

Mark McGuire, 1996 Athletics

46 (2.37 G per hour)

52 (3.12G per hour)

Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees

46 (2.37 G per hour)

59 (2.59G per hour)

Mark McGuire, 1999 Cardinals

44 (2.47G per hour)

65 (2.49G per hour)

Maguire’s home run average has dropped significantly since his first 109 games in 1996. If you’re chasing 60 homers, I think his first 30 is a lot easier to hit than his last 30. There are many reasons for this, including fatigue. The hardest part of this chase is still before the judges.

“Aaron is good at this. I understand that a month from now, six weeks from now, if he’s knocking on the door for something like that, the heightened attention that comes with it. I can’t Think of someone with the ability to handle that,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. Newsday Early this month. “I think at the beginning of the year we can start with all the stories revolving around the contract and how it affected him. He’s built for this. He’s going to get to the numbers. I think whatever you throw at him, whether or not.” A lot of the time, I don’t think the situation and the pressure is the reason why he does or doesn’t do.”

What judges have to do for the rest of the season

Judges have to hit 18 home runs in New York’s last 53 games to match Maris’ AL record. That means he needs 19 home runs to break the record, and he needs 17 to reach 60. His most prolific 53-game stretch of the season – he hit 24 homers in his 53 games from June 3 to August 2.

Here is the pace the Judges must maintain to reach these milestone sums:

62 home runs (new AL single season record)



61 home runs (matching Maris’ AL record)



60 home runs (Ninth 60-home run season in history)



Judge’s current pace


If you’re thinking big, Judges have to hit one homer every 1.97 games to match (and not even beat) Bonds’ single-season record of 73. No matter how fun the chase is, the judges will never get there. His AL record for Maris is the only realistic goal unless the judges get nuclear hot in the coming weeks and the odds of catching Bonds increase.

Remaining Jury Schedule

Judges certainly played at the right home stadium and hit 60 home runs. Yankee Stadium is one of the ballparks with the most home runs in the big league, but the judges aren’t exactly filling his totals with cheap on the short right field porch. His home run average of 412 feet makes him the fifth longest in baseball among players who have hit 20 or more home runs.

According to Statcast, Judge has hit only two homers this season at Yankee Stadium, where he hit a 364-footer against Shane McClanahan on June 15 and another 364 against Jonathan Heasley on July 30. it was a footer.

That home run against Heasley was Judge’s 200th all-time home run. He hit 200 career home runs in just 671 games. Second lowest after Ryan Howard (658).

It’s no surprise that Judge’s career home run average (1 in 13.1 at-bats) is higher than his home run average on the road (1 in 16.3 at-bats). The Yankees will only play 25 of the 53 remaining games at home, so that’s going against the judges chasing Maris’ AL record. Here’s a rough breakdown of these 53 games:

yankee stadium

twenty five


Fenway Park



globe life field



Ring Central Coliseum



Angel Stadium



Rogers Center



american family field



T-Mobile Park



Tropicana Field



What these numbers mean is that Yankee Stadium has inflated home runs for right-handed hitters to 112% of the league average. Meanwhile, the RingCentral Coliseum has a league average of just 69% right home runs. The higher the number, the more home run friendly the ballpark plays. At least, when it comes to Lighty’s home runs.

The good news: Judges will play 30 of the team’s remaining 53 games in a ballpark suitable for 57% of right home runs. Bad news: The Yankees will close out the season with his four make-up his games in Texas (this is his one in a series postponed by an owner lockout). Get it in a ballpark unsuitable for right-handed power hitters.

Another piece of good news: I’m not entirely sure the Home Run Park factor applies to the judges. As mentioned, his power is huge, and very few players have improved their home run average this season. He can hit the ball from any part of any park. That said, to hit 60 home runs, the judges will need a few cheapies along the way.

what about his workload?

This is important. The Yankees have 53 games left for him, but it’s unlikely the judges will play all 53 of his. In fact, Judge was out of the lineup last Wednesday, even though the Yankees had Thursday off. They used it as an opportunity to give him the opportunity to rest his legs for two days in a row.

Judge has been perfectly healthy this season, has not had a single daily injury situation, and has started 101 of the team’s 109 games (4 pinch hitters). A similar pace would see Judge start in his 49 of his final 53 games in New York. If he cuts the starting lineup by four, his home run total could drop significantly. Judges may also pay the price for Maris aiming for his AL record.

The Yankees are a postseason rock whose ultimate goal is to win the World Series (as the judges themselves would say). So he will do what he thinks best to make sure the team is in the best position heading into his October. That said, they are oblivious to the home run chase and potential history. How could the Yankees sit judges at home in his September?

My guess, and I want to emphasize that this is just a guess, is that the Yankees tweaked their rest schedule a bit and instead of giving judges a full day off, they gave us more (potentially give more) time. DH Judge’s rest schedule is definitely something to watch, especially as he enters September and has a better idea of ​​whether Judge can really challenge Maris for his AL record.