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College football odds: Big 12 betting preview and best bets

To Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

are you ready for some college footballBecause kick-off is imminent.?

Lots of soccer to watch every Thursday to Monday. That means college football has a lot of teams that study in terms of gambling. I’m nice he’s a guy (as ex-linemen do), so I help him make the tough decisions about how to gamble his money.

Bettors were already thinking about which teams they wanted to put their money into, so they wanted to do a betting preview every Power 5 conference. He analyzes two of which teams he thinks will win the conference, my potential dark horse picks, and my favorite over/under win total bet.

There’s a lot to digest, but I’ve got you covered. Consider my best bets against the Big 12 (all odds are below) FOXbet).

Conference best bet

Oklahoma: +200 FOX bet (Bet $10 to win $30 total) to win the Big 12

Maybe I’m behind the times, but I’ll keep running with the most talented and best coached team in the conference.

Oklahoma won its sixth consecutive Big 12 before losing the crown to Baylor last season. Yes, the Sooners have gone through some changes after that tragic loss. Former head of his coach Lincoln Riley bolted to his USC, bringing in a starting quarterback (Caleb Williams) and best receiver (Mario Williams).

Oklahoma has appointed longtime Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables to replace Riley, giving career assistant Brent Venables his first opportunity to become a head coach. The Sooners also acquired Dillon his Gabriel from the UCF and new offensive play his quarterback offense led by his caller Jeff Levy. Lebby is a former Sooner with explosive attacks at Baylor, UCF and most recently Ole Miss. This Sooner offense is fine without Lincoln Riley.

His defense prevented him from winning a playoff game, even though Riley won every win in Oklahoma. It no longer matters. Venables brings his offensive defensive tactics from Clemson, where the Tigers have played some of the best defenses in college football over the years. While the existing staff is different than what his Venables are accustomed to (Riley recruited smaller, faster defensive players), I still expect this defense to be the best it’s been in a decade. I’m here.

Oklahoma has the most talented roster in the conference at the moment, with motivation to show they don’t need Lincoln Riley to win, and their defense will be much improved.

To win the Big 12, you have to beat the Sooners.

long shot – Baylor: +600 FOX bet (Wage $10 to win a total of $70) Win the Big 12

Keeping the 2021 Big 12 conference winners away feels like a disservice to the program that the program’s head coach, Dave Aranda, is building. Baylor won the conference last season with a defense that ranked 10th in scoring and 7th in points per play. The defense won’t retreat in 2022. Because the Bears are returning his seven starters to this unit.

Meanwhile, the Bears’ offensive team finished 40th in scoring and 34th in yards per play last season. Baylor returns his four good offensive linemen, but loses a handful of receivers and has a few question marks at the quarterback. This is why the probability of winning the meeting is +600.

If young Blake Shapen, who started out as quarterback in the season finale and Big 12 championship game, can continue to develop into that role, the Bears’ offense could serve well enough to win the conference again.

Best Over/Under Win Total Bet

Oklahoma8.5 wins or more: -167 at FOX Bet (Bet $10 to win a total of $15.99)

I don’t understand this number. This win count prediction must reflect the oddsmakers’ uncertainty about the prowess of new head coach Brent Venables. That’s because the numbers aren’t based on Oklahoma’s talent or schedule.

The Sooners open with five very favorable games, including a matchup in Nebraska in Week 3. Then they get Texas and Kansas before the bye week. At worst, he’s 5-2 after 7 games. Then Iowa State, West, after he played Virginia, Texas Tech (assuming he goes into that stretch at 5-2), the Sooners should see him win eight. Then OU will have to beat either Baylor or Oklahoma State to get him 9 Ws in the season.

We know Oklahoma is 7-0 before the bye week. That’s it for me, this is a no-brainer.

Iowa6.5 wins or less: -110 at FOX Bet (Bet $10 and win $19.09)

We understand that head coach Matt Campbell is in love with his job at Iowa State.

The Cyclones had a total of 11 wins in four seasons before Campbell’s arrival. In his first season he had only 3 wins. Since then, Campbell’s team has won at least seven games a year. But last season Iowa State underperformed significantly, and I fear that energy will carry over into this year.

Going into 2021, the Cyclones have returned a veteran team with Brock Purdy at quarterback and All-American Breath-Hall at running back. Their offense, however, has been just a little bit for much of the season. The team’s rushing offense was inefficient, with his success rate placing him 98th and the Cyclones failing to convert him on 3rd down.

Iowa State’s defense did a little better than it did last season. D was somewhat balanced. The unit excelled on runs, passes and third downs against decent ones. The concern for this roster is that he’s lost 63% of production since last season, and in the last four hiring cycles he’s only hired four high-caliber prospects.

The Cyclones have to trade heavy production while playing schedules featuring the big guys in Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas.

Under makes sense here.

Jeff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started his three seasons at right tackle for the University of Oregon and was his All-Pac-12 selection for the second team. He’s an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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